Will Bob Harvie be the Democratic nominee for PA-01?
Prediction markets currently give a 90% probability that Will Bob Harvie be the Democratic nominee for PA-01?. This contract trades at 90¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. Bob Harvie is priced at an exceptionally high 90¢ with virtually no trading activity ($0 in 24h volume), suggesting this reflects stale pricing rather than active market consensus.
Analysis
Bob Harvie is priced at an exceptionally high 90¢ with virtually no trading activity ($0 in 24h volume), suggesting this reflects stale pricing rather than active market consensus. The extreme asymmetry in implied yields—10.5% for Yes versus 396.4% for No—indicates the market is heavily skewed toward his nomination, yet the modest $984 open interest and wide 7¢ spread signal low liquidity and confidence in that view. The 4¢ price decline over seven days combined with the 566-day time horizon until resolution creates meaningful cliff risk (index of 6), suggesting this contract may see significant repricing once the 2026 primary cycle intensifies.
Resolution rules
If Bob Harvie wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 PA-01 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPAPRIMARY-01D26-BHAR yes 100