Will above -100000 jobs be added in April 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 95% probability that Will above -100000 jobs be added in April 2026?. This contract trades at 95¢ on Kalshi, closing May 8, 2026. This market is pricing in a 97% probability that April 2026 will see job additions above -100,000 (essentially any positive jobs number or losses smaller than 100,000), which reflects historical norms where negative employment months are rare.
Analysis
This market is pricing in a 97% probability that April 2026 will see job additions above -100,000 (essentially any positive jobs number or losses smaller than 100,000), which reflects historical norms where negative employment months are rare. The extreme No-side implied yield of 37,289% signals severe illiquidity with only $10 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making this contract essentially illiquid despite the tight 3¢ spread. With 19 days to expiry and a modest 1¢ price decline over the past week, this appears to be a low-conviction market where the pricing is reasonable but the lack of trading activity makes execution difficult.
Resolution rules
If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above -100000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of April 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPAYROLLS-26APR-T-100000 yes 100