Who will perform the next James Bond Song?
Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Who will perform the next James Bond Song?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2035. This market is pricing Lady Gaga at just 8¢ despite a decade-long timeframe until the 2035 expiry, creating an unusually asymmetric 131.9% implied yield on the Yes side versus 1.0% on the No side.
Analysis
This market is pricing Lady Gaga at just 8¢ despite a decade-long timeframe until the 2035 expiry, creating an unusually asymmetric 131.9% implied yield on the Yes side versus 1.0% on the No side. The $0 24-hour volume and thin $1,355 open interest suggest minimal liquidity, while the wide 7¢ spread indicates low confidence in price discovery. The recent 1¢ decline from 9¢ and moderate 12 cliff risk score suggest this is a speculative position with limited conviction, making the extreme yield differential potentially misleading given the illiquidity.
Resolution rules
If Lady Gaga performs the next James Bond film theme, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPERFORMBONDSONG-35-LAD yes 100