Who will perform the next James Bond Song

30-day trend

Analysis

Olivia Dean is currently priced at 29% to perform the next James Bond film's theme song, making her the market leader among nine candidates. This reflects traders' assessment of her likelihood relative to alternatives like Raye (18%), Dua Lipa (15%), and Lana Del Rey (13%). The probability depends on two main factors: whether the next Bond film's production schedule advances and which artist the filmmakers select as their choice. Typically, Bond theme announcements occur months before film release, and the decision rests entirely with the studio and filmmakers rather than on measurable market conditions. The primary catalyst resolving this market will be an official announcement from the production team or studio executives confirming which artist will record the theme song. Until such an announcement occurs, the probability reflects market participants' subjective views on Olivia Dean's appeal as a vocalist and likelihood of selection relative to competitors.

• ›Olivia Dean has no previous Bond theme credit, unlike some established artists, making her selection speculative rather than based on historical precedent
• ›Market pricing shows significant fragmentation across nine candidates, with the leader at only 29%, indicating genuine uncertainty rather than consensus conviction
• ›Raye, the second-ranked candidate at 18%, has substantial 24-hour trading volume ($24) compared to Olivia Dean's $13, suggesting active disagreement among traders on the relative rankings
• ›No official Bond film announcement, confirmed director, or production timeline has been disclosed, meaning this probability is entirely forward-looking speculation
• ›The resolution depends solely on a formal announcement by film producers with no intermediate data releases or events to update market expectations before that announcement

What moved the line

• Sep 18Lorde↑41pp42→83¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 19Dua Lipa↑5pp7→12¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 17Dua Lipa↓4pp14→10¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 18Dua Lipa↓3pp10→7¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds