Who will perform the next James Bond Song
Leader sits at 38% across 11 bound outcomes, runner-up at 18%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Olivia Dean
Outcomes
11
winner-take-all
Runner-up
18¢
Raye
Spread
20pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2035
3112 days
Venue
Kalshi
11 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will perform the next James Bond Song
Who will perform the next James Bond Song?: Dua Lipa
KXPERFORMBONDSONG-35-DUA
Who will perform the next James Bond Song?: Taylor Swift
KXPERFORMBONDSONG-35-TAY
Who will perform the next James Bond Song?: Sabrina Carpenter
KXPERFORMBONDSONG-35-SAB
Who will perform the next James Bond Song?: Raye
KXPERFORMBONDSONG-35-RAY
Who will perform the next James Bond Song?: Olivia Dean
KXPERFORMBONDSONG-35-OLI
Who will perform the next James Bond Song?: Oasis
KXPERFORMBONDSONG-35-OAS
Who will perform the next James Bond Song?: Miley Cyrus
KXPERFORMBONDSONG-35-MIL
Who will perform the next James Bond Song?: Lorde
KXPERFORMBONDSONG-35-LOR
Who will perform the next James Bond Song?: Lana Del Rey
KXPERFORMBONDSONG-35-LAN
Who will perform the next James Bond Song?: Lady Gaga
KXPERFORMBONDSONG-35-LAD
Who will perform the next James Bond Song?: Ed Sheeran
KXPERFORMBONDSONG-35-ED
Analysis
This 40% probability reflects market participants' assessment that Olivia Dean will perform the next James Bond theme song. The prediction is based on limited trading activity across nine contracts, with Olivia Dean commanding the plurality while other artists like Dua Lipa (16¢) and Lana Del Rey (15¢) also receive meaningful support. The probability would shift based on official announcements from Bond producers, production studio timelines for the next film installment, or news about which artists are in negotiations. The key uncertainty driver is whether a new James Bond film is in active development or greenlit, since the next theme song performer depends entirely on when the next movie production begins. Resolution will ultimately come from an official announcement by EON Productions or MGM designating the performer.
- ›No recent trading volume across any contracts ($0 24h volume), indicating minimal new information or market conviction in recent days
- ›Olivia Dean leads at 40% with next runner-up at 18%, suggesting significant but not overwhelming consensus
- ›The distribution across nine artists is relatively dispersed, with top five candidates ranging from 4¢ to 40¢, reflecting substantial uncertainty
- ›James Bond film production schedules and official soundtrack announcements are the primary triggers that would concentrate or disperse this probability
- ›Historical Bond theme singers have been established artists with strong commercial profiles, which constrains the plausible candidate pool
What moved the line
- Jun 20Olivia Dean↓35pp41→6¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Olivia Dean↑33pp6→39¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Dua Lipa↓13pp17→4¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Dua Lipa↑11pp4→15¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Raye↓8pp26→18¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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