Who will win the next Philippine House election?
Prediction markets currently give a 15% probability that Who will win the next Philippine House election?. This contract trades at 15¢ on Kalshi, closing May 31, 2029. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $97 open interest, making the 15¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $97 open interest, making the 15¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The 181.3% implied yield on the Yes side is unusually high relative to the 5.6% on the No side, suggesting either severe mispricing or that traders are heavily skeptical of NUP's chances in the 2028 Philippine House election. With 1,141 days until expiry and a wide 5¢ spread, this appears to be a speculative long-tail market with minimal institutional participation.
Resolution rules
If the winner of the next Philippine House election in 2028 is NUP, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPHILIPPINESHOUSE-28-NUP yes 100