Who will win the next Philippine presidential election?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Who will win the next Philippine presidential election?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Kalshi, closing May 31, 2029. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a wide 181.3% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 11¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus but rather a thin order book.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a wide 181.3% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 11¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus but rather a thin order book. The 7-day price movement from 10¢ to 15¢ represents a 50% swing on minimal volume, indicating high volatility and potential mispricing in a market with only $1,017 open interest. With 1,141 days until expiry and a moderate 6 cliff risk index, this contract appears speculative and illiquid rather than a reliable probability estimate for the 2028 Philippine presidential election.
Resolution rules
If the winner of the next Philippine presidential election in 2028 is Leni Robredo, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPHILIPPINESPRES-28-LROB yes 100