Will Spike Cohen be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Spike Cohen be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing November 7, 2028. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $5 in 24-hour volume against $475 open interest, creating a wide 4¢ spread that likely overstates Cohen's true probability.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $5 in 24-hour volume against $475 open interest, creating a wide 4¢ spread that likely overstates Cohen's true probability. The 741.2% implied yield on the Yes side is exceptionally high—typical of low-probability, thinly-traded contracts—while the 2.1% yield on No suggests the market may be pricing in some tail risk despite Cohen's historical lack of prominence in Libertarian politics. With nearly three years until the 11/7/2028 expiration and a neutral regime score, this appears to be a speculative position rather than a liquid prediction, making the 5¢ price potentially unreliable for serious forecasting.
Resolution rules
If Spike Cohen wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Libertarian party, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPRESNOML-28-SCOH yes 100