Who will win the next presidential election?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Who will win the next presidential election?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing November 7, 2029. This market prices AOC's 2029 presidential chances at just 6%, reflecting significant skepticism about her viability as a major-party nominee despite over four years until resolution.
Analysis
This market prices AOC's 2029 presidential chances at just 6%, reflecting significant skepticism about her viability as a major-party nominee despite over four years until resolution. The 533.7% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high relative to the 1.5% on the No side, indicating extreme asymmetry and suggesting the market may be underpricing a long-shot scenario, though the modest $1.9k daily volume and wide spread (1¢) raise liquidity concerns that could distort pricing. With a Cliff Risk Index of 19 and neutral regime conditions, this appears to be a speculative position rather than a consensus forecast, and traders should be cautious given the thin trading activity relative to the $1.4M open interest.
Resolution rules
If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPRESPERSON-28-AOCA yes 100