Who will win the next presidential election

30-day trend

Analysis

J.D. Vance is currently priced at 18% to win the next presidential election, indicating the market views him as a leading but not heavily favored candidate. This probability reflects expectations about his viability in a competitive field where Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Marco Rubio are also receiving significant trading volume. The level suggests meaningful uncertainty about whether Vance can consolidate support or face headwinds from rival candidates. Key drivers include his current political position, primary dynamics if applicable, and broader electorate preferences. The probability would likely shift based on major political developments, candidate announcements, or significant policy events that reshape the competitive landscape. Resolution depends on the actual outcome of the election cycle, with probabilities potentially converging as the election date approaches and voter preferences become clearer through polling and primary results.

• ›Vance's current pricing at 18% is substantially higher than Trump (3%) and DeSantis (4%), suggesting market differentiation in electability assessments
• ›AOC's 7% price with the highest 24-hour volume ($147k) indicates active trading and uncertainty about her candidacy trajectory
• ›Rubio at 16% creates a tight competitive band between Rubio and Vance, with less than 100 basis points separating the top two candidates
• ›The multi-outcome structure means probabilities across all candidates must sum to 100%, creating relative rather than absolute price signals
• ›Trading volume distribution shows concentrated activity in lower-priced contracts (AOC, Trump, DeSantis) relative to the leading probabilities, suggesting speculative positioning

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds