Who will win the next presidential election
Leader sits at 19% across 10 bound outcomes, runner-up at 17%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Marco Rubio
Outcomes
10
winner-take-all
Runner-up
17¢
J.D. Vance
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$177K
liquid
Closes
Nov 7, 2029
1231 days
Venue
Kalshi
10 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will win the next presidential election
Who will win the next presidential election?: Marco Rubio
KXPRESPERSON-28-MRUB
Who will win the next presidential election?: Gavin Newsom
KXPRESPERSON-28-GNEWS
Who will win the next presidential election?: Andy Beshear
KXPRESPERSON-28-ABES
Who will win the next presidential election?: J.D. Vance
KXPRESPERSON-28-JVAN
Who will win the next presidential election?: Kamala Harris
KXPRESPERSON-28-KHAR
Who will win the next presidential election?: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
KXPRESPERSON-28-AOCA
Who will win the next presidential election?: Jon Ossoff
KXPRESPERSON-28-JOSS
Who will win the next presidential election?: Pete Buttigieg
KXPRESPERSON-28-PBUT
Who will win the next presidential election?: Donald J. Trump
KXPRESPERSON-28-DTRU
Who will win the next presidential election?: Josh Shapiro
KXPRESPERSON-28-JSHA
Analysis
J.D. Vance is currently priced at 18% to win the 2028 presidential election, making him the leading candidate among markets tracking this outcome. This probability reflects traders' assessment of his viability as a general election candidate relative to other potential nominees from both parties. The current level is influenced by Vance's position within Republican politics and market perception of Democratic alternatives. Near-term factors that could shift this probability include major political developments, polling changes, or clarifying events regarding other candidates' viability. The outcome ultimately depends on nomination contests in 2028 and subsequent general election dynamics, though the market currently suggests substantial uncertainty with multiple candidates clustered in the 15-18% range.
- ›J.D. Vance's 18% price is only 2 percentage points ahead of Gavin Newsom (16%) and 3 points above Marco Rubio (15%), indicating high fragmentation rather than consensus favorite
- ›24-hour trading volume for Newsom ($11,963) significantly exceeds volume for Vance ($7,677), suggesting more active positioning in alternative candidates
- ›The combined price of top five candidates totals roughly 57%, leaving 43% for all other potential nominees—indicating material uncertainty about the eventual nominee
- ›Donald Trump is priced at only 3% despite recent political prominence, while Kamala Harris is at 5%, showing markets heavily discount recent officeholders
- ›The 2028 nomination contests have not yet occurred, and no formal candidacies are established, making current prices highly responsive to political developments and early polling shifts
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Senate Judiciary Committee holds a hearing for, or votes to report, a district-court or U.S.-attorney nomination associated with a state where a sitting home-state senator has not returned an affirmative blue slip before Jan 1, 2028last 35% · 1d
- Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-1last 4% · 1d
- Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02last 47% · 1d
- Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17last 45% · 1d
- Will Christopher Gallant be the Democratic nominee for NY-01last 16% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In election 2026
Related reading
Democrats Firming as Favorites to Hold House in 2026
Democrats have strengthened their position to retain control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterms, with contracts rising to 78¢. This shift comes amid strong fundraising and favorable special election results, challenging the historical midterm penalty for the president's party. The Senate race remains a toss-up, with Republicans at 57¢ to take control.
Democratic House Control Strongly Favored at 78¢
Traders are pricing in a 78% probability that Democrats will win control of the House in 2026, while the Senate remains a toss-up with Republicans at 57¢. This balance of power scenario is a key input for midterm election trading strategies.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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