Who will win the next presidential election?
Prediction markets currently give a 17% probability that Who will win the next presidential election?. This contract trades at 17¢ on Kalshi, closing November 7, 2029. Gavin Newsom's presidential odds are priced at a modest 16¢ with exceptionally asymmetric payoffs—the Yes side offers a 147.3% annualized yield versus just 5.3% for No, suggesting significant underpricing relative to the No position's risk-adjusted return of 64%.
Analysis
Gavin Newsom's presidential odds are priced at a modest 16¢ with exceptionally asymmetric payoffs—the Yes side offers a 147.3% annualized yield versus just 5.3% for No, suggesting significant underpricing relative to the No position's risk-adjusted return of 64%. The market shows healthy liquidity with $1.33M open interest and $14.5K daily volume, though the 2¢ spread and neutral regime indicate stable pricing with no imminent catalyst driving movement over the past week.
Resolution rules
If Gavin Newsom is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPRESPERSON-28-GNEWS yes 100