Who will win the next presidential election?

This market prices Josh Shapiro at just 4¢ with an extraordinarily high implied yield of 907.4% for Yes positions, reflecting the extreme long-shot odds assigned to his candidacy over the next 1,301 days. The massive yield asymmetry—Yes at 907.4% versus No at 0.9%—combined with a moderate Cliff Risk Index of 32 suggests significant tail risk concentrated in a narrow outcome, though the $954k open interest provides reasonable liquidity for a niche political prediction. The flat 7-day price action (holding at 3¢) and tight 1¢ spread indicate this market has stabilized at consensus lows, though the neutral regime score suggests conditions could shift with major political developments before the 2029 election.

Resolution rules

If Josh Shapiro is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade