Who will win the next presidential election?
Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that Who will win the next presidential election?. This contract trades at 14¢ on Kalshi, closing November 7, 2029. Marco Rubio's election odds are priced at just 13¢ with a notably asymmetric 205.8% implied yield for Yes positions against only 3.8% for No, suggesting the market heavily favors alternative outcomes despite over $1.6M in open interest.
Analysis
Marco Rubio's election odds are priced at just 13¢ with a notably asymmetric 205.8% implied yield for Yes positions against only 3.8% for No, suggesting the market heavily favors alternative outcomes despite over $1.6M in open interest. The contract has declined 1¢ over seven days and shows a moderate 7 Cliff Risk Index, indicating meaningful uncertainty around resolution despite the long 1,301-day timeframe. With relatively thin 24-hour volume of $3,482 and a tight 1¢ spread, liquidity is modest for a major political event, though the risk-adjusted yield of 103% reflects the substantial tail risk embedded in this low-probability outcome.
Resolution rules
If Marco Rubio is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPRESPERSON-28-MRUB yes 100