Who will win the next presidential election?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Who will win the next presidential election?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Kalshi, closing November 7, 2029. This market prices Pete Buttigieg at just 3% to win the 2029 presidency, generating an extreme 907% implied yield on Yes contracts despite over $880k in open interest and a tight 0¢ spread.
Analysis
This market prices Pete Buttigieg at just 3% to win the 2029 presidency, generating an extreme 907% implied yield on Yes contracts despite over $880k in open interest and a tight 0¢ spread. The massive yield-to-probability gap and neutral regime score (0.341) suggest the market may be pricing in significant tail risk or structural inefficiency, though the low 24-hour volume of $1,760 and elevated cliff risk index of 32 indicate thin liquidity could be amplifying the mispricing with 1,301 days until resolution.
Resolution rules
If Pete Buttigieg is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPRESPERSON-28-PBUT yes 100