Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 85% probability that Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 85¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market is pricing an 80% probability of House passage, but the extreme 562% implied yield on the No side and 14.15 volatility ratio suggest severe mispricing or tail risk hedging, particularly given the 946% realized volatility and recent sharp 75-cent rally from 5¢ over seven days.
Analysis
The market is pricing an 80% probability of House passage, but the extreme 562% implied yield on the No side and 14.15 volatility ratio suggest severe mispricing or tail risk hedging, particularly given the 946% realized volatility and recent sharp 75-cent rally from 5¢ over seven days. With only $89.75 in 24-hour volume against $526.75 open interest, liquidity is dangerously thin for a market this volatile, and the 4/10 cliff risk index indicates potential for sharp moves near the January 1, 2027 expiration. The neutral regime and 1.2 information arrivals per hour suggest this market is reactive to legislative developments rather than fundamentally repriced.
Resolution rules
If a reconciliation bill passes the House before January 01, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXRECNCH-26-JAN01 yes 100