Will Marco Rubio announce a run for President of the United States before Oct 1, 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 53% probability that Will Marco Rubio announce a run for President of the United States before Oct 1, 2027?. This contract trades at 53¢ on Kalshi, closing October 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $3 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 53¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $3 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 53¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The 90.8% implied yield on the "No" side is notably high relative to the 51.7% "Yes" yield, suggesting the market may be underpricing the probability of a Rubio announcement given his prominence and the typical timing of presidential campaign declarations. With 533 days to expiration and minimal trading activity, this appears to be a thin, speculative market where the wide 7¢ spread reflects low confidence in price discovery.
Resolution rules
If Marco Rubio has announced that they will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Oct 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXRUBIORUN-28-27OCT01 yes 100