Will Michael Black Wolf be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Montana?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will Michael Black Wolf be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Montana?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and minimal open interest of just $20.17, making the 7¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and minimal open interest of just $20.17, making the 7¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading. The astronomical 5882% implied yield on the Yes side signals either a severe mispricing or that the contract is essentially dead money with no active participants. With 201 days until expiry and a neutral regime score, there's insufficient market depth to confidently assess whether Black Wolf's actual nomination odds are genuinely this low or if the thin liquidity is simply distorting the price discovery mechanism.
Also on polymarket at 5¢(Δ +2¢)
Resolution rules
If Michael Black Wolf wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Senate Montana Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSENATEMTD-26-MWOL yes 100