Who will win the next Slovak parliamentary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Who will win the next Slovak parliamentary election?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Kalshi, closing September 29, 2028. This market shows extreme illiquidity with just $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 12¢ price potentially unreliable.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with just $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 12¢ price potentially unreliable. The 773.5% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high and likely reflects the thin liquidity rather than genuine market conviction, while the 10¢ spread is substantial relative to the price itself. With nearly 900 days until expiry and a neutral regime, this appears to be a nascent market awaiting deeper participation before meaningful price discovery can occur.
Resolution rules
If the winner of the next Slovak parliamentary election expected to be held in 2027 at the latest is Coalition including Hlas-SD, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSLOVAKIAPARLI-27-HLAS yes 100