Will SOL trimmed mean be above $110.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will SOL trimmed mean be above $110.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 3¢ price implying only 3% probability that SOL's trimmed mean will touch $110 by April 30, 2026—yet SOL is currently trading around $190-200, making this a substantial downside move requirement over 11 months.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 3¢ price implying only 3% probability that SOL's trimmed mean will touch $110 by April 30, 2026—yet SOL is currently trading around $190-200, making this a substantial downside move requirement over 11 months. The astronomical 100,000% implied yield on Yes contracts combined with minimal $1 daily volume and $6,348 open interest suggests severe illiquidity and potential for sharp repricing, especially given the realized volatility of 3,204% and recent 73% price collapse from 8¢ to 3¢ over seven days. With 11 days to expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 32, this appears to be either a data anomaly or a deeply mispriced tail bet that could attract sharp traders if liquidity improves.
Resolution rules
If the price of SOL after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026 is ever above $110.00, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSOLMAXMON-SOL-26APR30-11000 yes 100