Will LyondellBasell Industries be removed from the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will LyondellBasell Industries be removed from the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing July 1, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $76 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 3¢ price potentially unreliable despite the astronomical 5552% implied yield on a Yes resolution.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $76 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 3¢ price potentially unreliable despite the astronomical 5552% implied yield on a Yes resolution. The massive 14¢ price collapse over seven days (from 22¢ to 8¢) suggests either improved market information about LyondellBasell's stability or a liquidity event rather than genuine probability shifts. The 8¢ spread is notably wide relative to the 3¢ price, and with 76 days to expiration and a moderate cliff risk index of 12, this market lacks sufficient depth for confident position-taking.
Resolution rules
If LyondellBasell Industries is announced to be or is officially removed from S&P 500 during April 1, 2026 to June 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSP500REMOVEQ-26JUL01-LYB yes 100