Will Bank of America take SpaceX public before Jan 1, 2028?
Prediction markets currently give a 91% probability that Will Bank of America take SpaceX public before Jan 1, 2028?. This contract trades at 91¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2028. The 96¢ price reflects extreme consensus that Bank of America will underwrite a SpaceX IPO by year-end 2027, yet the massive 1111% implied yield on the No side and 555% risk-adjusted yield signal severe mispricing—traders betting against this outcome demand extraordinary compensation for taking that position.
Analysis
The 96¢ price reflects extreme consensus that Bank of America will underwrite a SpaceX IPO by year-end 2027, yet the massive 1111% implied yield on the No side and 555% risk-adjusted yield signal severe mispricing—traders betting against this outcome demand extraordinary compensation for taking that position. With only $32 in 24-hour volume against $32,360 open interest, liquidity is dangerously thin, meaning the 1¢ spread understates true execution costs and the price may not reflect genuine market conviction. The sharp 4-point rally over seven days combined with the 19 Cliff Risk Index suggests this market could experience sudden repricing if SpaceX IPO timing signals shift or if Bank of America's involvement becomes uncertain.
Also on polymarket at 13¢(Δ +78¢)
Resolution rules
If Bank of America serves as a lead underwriter for SpaceX's initial public offering in the United States before ||date||, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Regime
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sf trade KXSPACEXBANKPUBLIC-28JAN01-BOAX yes 100