Will Morgan Stanley take SpaceX public before Jan 1, 2028?
Prediction markets currently give a 95% probability that Will Morgan Stanley take SpaceX public before Jan 1, 2028?. This contract trades at 95¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2028. The market is pricing in an extremely high probability (95%) that Morgan Stanley will lead a SpaceX IPO before year-end 2027, yet the asymmetric implied yields—3.7% for Yes versus 916% for No—suggest severe liquidity constraints on the No side, with only $38,089 in open interest supporting this conviction.
Analysis
The market is pricing in an extremely high probability (95%) that Morgan Stanley will lead a SpaceX IPO before year-end 2027, yet the asymmetric implied yields—3.7% for Yes versus 916% for No—suggest severe liquidity constraints on the No side, with only $38,089 in open interest supporting this conviction. The negligible 7-day price stability at 94-95¢ and razor-thin 1¢ spread indicate this is a consensus view with minimal trading activity ($62 in 24h volume), making the market potentially vulnerable to sharp repricing if SpaceX IPO timelines shift or Morgan Stanley's involvement becomes uncertain.
Also on polymarket at 54¢(Δ +41¢)
Resolution rules
If Morgan Stanley serves as a lead underwriter for SpaceX's initial public offering in the United States before ||date||, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSPACEXBANKPUBLIC-28JAN01-MSX yes 100