What is the current probability for "Will Sherry Cardoso win Top Chef Season 23?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 4¢ (4% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 7, 2027. 261 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Sherry Cardoso win Top Chef Season 23?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 3359.1% and 5.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Sherry Cardoso win Top Chef Season 23?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Sherry Cardoso win Top Chef Season 23?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Sherry Cardoso win Top Chef Season 23?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing January 7, 2027. Sherry Cardoso is priced as a significant longshot at 5¢ with an extraordinarily high implied yield of 2,610.7% for Yes positions, reflecting the low baseline probability of any single contestant winning.

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4¢

Bid/Ask 0/2¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $0·OI $4,545.47·Closes Jan 7, 2027·261d remaining

KXTOPCHEF-26DEC31-SHER

7-day price3 snapshots · 3 regime

6¢4¢ current

Apr 134¢Apr 17

Analysis

4d ago

Sherry Cardoso is priced as a significant longshot at 5¢ with an extraordinarily high implied yield of 2,610.7% for Yes positions, reflecting the low baseline probability of any single contestant winning. The market shows modest liquidity with $656.34 in 24-hour volume against $4,194.09 open interest, and a notably wide 4¢ spread suggests uncertainty among market makers. Price has declined from 6¢ to 5¢ over the past week, indicating slight erosion in her odds, though with 266 days until expiry there remains substantial time for contestant performance to shift market sentiment.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at —¢

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.78Close-time delta 3855h

Resolution rules

If Sherry Cardoso is officially declared the winner of Top Chef Season 23 before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 3359.1%

IY (No) 5.8%

Adj IY 1680%

CRI 24

Overround 0.3%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	3359.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	5.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1680%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.3%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:13:34 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXTOPCHEF-26DEC31-SHER yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →