Will luther (with sza) be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will luther (with sza) be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date t.... This contract trades at 3¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market exhibits extreme mispricing with a 4571% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 3¢ price significantly undervalues the probability of "luther" reaching #2 on 2026 Spotify Wrapped—a notably specific outcome requiring both massive streaming volume and precise ranking placement.
Analysis
This market exhibits extreme mispricing with a 4571% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 3¢ price significantly undervalues the probability of "luther" reaching #2 on 2026 Spotify Wrapped—a notably specific outcome requiring both massive streaming volume and precise ranking placement. The $0 24-hour volume and minimal $82 open interest indicate severe illiquidity, making the quoted price potentially unreliable and the high yield partly a function of thin market conditions rather than genuine opportunity. With 258 days to expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 32, the market faces moderate uncertainty around resolution timing, though the primary concern is whether this represents genuine mispricing or simply an illiquid market with wide bid-ask spreads.
Resolution rules
If luther (with sza) is the #2 most streamed Song on Spotify's 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTOPSONGRUNNERUPUSA-26-LUT yes 100