Will Man I Need be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 14% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
14%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
5 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
147 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
will babydoll be the #2 most streamed song on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 songs usa chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 2
Will Earrings be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 3
will luther (with sza) be the #2 most streamed song on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 songs usa chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 4
will man i need be the #2 most streamed song on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 songs usa chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 5
will timeless (feat playboi carti) be the #2 most streamed song on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 songs usa chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Analysis
This market asks whether 'Man I Need' will rank as the second most-streamed song in Spotify's 2026 USA Wrapped top 10 songs, currently priced at 8% probability. The low probability reflects uncertainty about both the song's streaming trajectory through year-end 2026 and competition from other releases. Key factors include whether the song maintains listener engagement over the remaining eight months, how many new tracks from major artists launch before the annual wrapped announcement, and the historical volatility of streaming rankings. The outcome resolves in early December 2026 when Spotify releases its official Wrapped data for the year, making listener behavior and release timing the primary variables determining whether 'Man I Need' achieves this specific ranking.
- ›'Man I Need' must accumulate sufficient streams over eight months to rank #2 specifically in the USA top 10 songs, not #1 or #3
- ›Major artist releases between now and November 2026 could displace the song from contention if they capture disproportionate listening hours
- ›The song's streaming velocity and retention pattern relative to other 2026 releases will determine if it accumulates enough total plays to claim the #2 position
- ›Whether the artist behind 'Man I Need' maintains cultural relevance and playlist positioning throughout the remainder of 2026
- ›Spotify's streaming calculation methodology and weighting could affect final ranking, though the platform typically uses total stream counts
What moved the line
- Jul 31Earrings↑20pp29→49¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 3Earrings↓16pp43→27¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 4Earrings↓12pp27→15¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 4Man I Need↑9pp36→45¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 2Earrings↓8pp51→43¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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