Will Man I Need be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 16% probability that Will Man I Need be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the.... This contract trades at 16¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 3393% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical and unreliable for actual trading.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 3393% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical and unreliable for actual trading. The 12-cent spread is unusually wide relative to the price, and the modest 3-cent to 4-cent price movement over seven days suggests minimal market activity and confidence in the outcome. With 258 days until expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 24, there's meaningful uncertainty about whether "Man I Need" will maintain sufficient streaming momentum to rank exactly #2 on next year's Wrapped chart, making this an extremely speculative and illiquid position.
Resolution rules
If Man I Need is the #2 most streamed Song on Spotify's 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTOPSONGRUNNERUPUSA-26-MANI yes 100