Will Timeless (feat Playboi Carti) be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?

Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Timeless (feat Playboi Carti) be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart o.... This contract trades at 3¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market exhibits extreme illiquidity with only $77 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 3¢ price potentially unreliable for valuation purposes.

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3¢
Bid/Ask 0/3¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $0·OI $77·Closes Dec 31, 2026·253d remaining
KXTOPSONGRUNNERUPUSA-26-TIM

Analysis

4d ago

This market exhibits extreme illiquidity with only $77 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 3¢ price potentially unreliable for valuation purposes. The astronomical 4570% implied yield on the Yes side suggests the market is severely mispriced or reflects genuine skepticism about a specific song achieving exactly the #2 position among millions of tracks—a highly precise outcome requiring both massive popularity and precise ranking. With 258 days until expiry and a moderate cliff risk index of 32, this appears to be a novelty or niche market with insufficient trading activity to establish meaningful price discovery.

Resolution rules

If Timeless (feat Playboi Carti) is the #2 most streamed Song on Spotify's 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 4660.2%
IY (No) 4.5%
Adj IY 2330%
CRI 32
Overround -0.7%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)4660.2%
IY (No)4.5%
Adj IY2330%
CRI32
Overround-0.7%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
3¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 11:19:19 PM
Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 11:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXTOPSONGRUNNERUPUSA-26-TIM yes 100

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