Will BIRDS OF A FEATHER be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will BIRDS OF A FEATHER be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs Globally chart on the .... This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 1878% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 7¢ price significantly undervalues the probability that "Birds of a Feather" finishes as the #2 global song on 2026 Wrapped—particularly notable given the track's demonstrated streaming strength and the specificity required (exactly #2, not top 10 broadly).
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 1878% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 7¢ price significantly undervalues the probability that "Birds of a Feather" finishes as the #2 global song on 2026 Wrapped—particularly notable given the track's demonstrated streaming strength and the specificity required (exactly #2, not top 10 broadly). The $929 open interest and zero 24-hour volume indicate severe illiquidity, making the wide 5¢ spread unreliable for actual execution, though the neutral regime and 258 days to resolution provide adequate time for price discovery. The 13 Cliff Risk Index suggests moderate tail risk around Spotify's final chart release timing, but the asymmetric payoff structure (1878% vs 10.6%) indicates sophisticated traders see substantial edge in the Yes position.
Resolution rules
If BIRDS OF A FEATHER is the #2 most streamed Song on Spotify's 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTOPSONGSPOTIFYRUNNERUP-26-BIR yes 100