Will BIRDS OF A FEATHER be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 8% across 10 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
8%
10 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
10 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
189 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
10 clusters across 10 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
will babydoll be the #2 most streamed song on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 songs globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 2
will beauty and a beat be the #2 most streamed song on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 songs globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 3
will birds of a feather be the #2 most streamed song on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 songs globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 4
will die with a smile be the #2 most streamed song on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 songs globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 5
will don’t say you love me be the #2 most streamed song on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 songs globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 6
will end of beginning be the #2 most streamed song on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 songs globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 7
will manchild be the #2 most streamed song on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 songs globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 8
will ordinary be the #2 most streamed song on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 songs globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 9
will soda pop be the #2 most streamed song on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 songs globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 10
will swim be the #2 most streamed song on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 songs globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Analysis
This contract asks whether "Birds of a Feather" will rank as the second-most streamed song globally on Spotify's 2026 year-end Wrapped chart when released in early December 2026. The 9% probability reflects skepticism about a specific song holding the #2 position among all global streams over an entire year. For context, top songs typically accumulate billions of streams, and achieving a top-two position requires sustained global appeal across multiple months. The probability would increase if the song continues gaining traction through mid-2026 or if it receives major playlist placement. It would decrease if competing songs from major artists (like Drake, The Weeknd, or Bad Bunny) release chart-dominating tracks. The contract resolves on December 3-4, 2026, when Spotify officially publishes its annual Wrapped data, making streaming performance through November the decisive factor.
- ›Current cumulative streaming volume of 'Birds of a Feather' relative to songs projected to finish in top positions by year-end
- ›Historical placement patterns showing whether songs from mid-year releases realistically achieve #2 global positioning by December
- ›Competitive landscape of major releases expected throughout 2026 from chart-dominant artists
- ›Whether the song maintains playlist momentum and cross-regional appeal through the final months of 2026
- ›Spotify's algorithmic promotion patterns and whether 'Birds of a Feather' receives sustained featured placement
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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