Will Die With A Smile be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Die With A Smile be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs Globally chart on the da.... This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 3393% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 4¢ price significantly undervalues the probability that "Die With A Smile" finishes as Spotify's #2 global song in 2026.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 3393% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 4¢ price significantly undervalues the probability that "Die With A Smile" finishes as Spotify's #2 global song in 2026. The $0 24-hour volume and minimal $215 open interest indicate severe illiquidity, making the quoted price potentially unreliable and the high yield partly a function of thin market depth rather than genuine opportunity. With 258 days to expiry and a neutral regime, the cliff risk index of 24 is moderate, but the lack of trading activity and wide spread (4¢) suggest this contract is essentially illiquid and should be approached cautiously despite the apparent yield anomaly.
Resolution rules
If Die With A Smile is the #2 most streamed Song on Spotify's 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTOPSONGSPOTIFYRUNNERUP-26-DIE yes 100