Will End of Beginning be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 20% probability that Will End of Beginning be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs Globally chart on the da.... This contract trades at 20¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $351 open interest, making the 20¢ price potentially unreliable for genuine probability assessment.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $351 open interest, making the 20¢ price potentially unreliable for genuine probability assessment. The asymmetric implied yields (1143.7% Yes vs 17.5% No) and wide 9¢ spread reflect thin order books rather than informed conviction about "End of Beginning" reaching #2 on 2026 Spotify Wrapped. With 258 days to expiry and a moderate cliff risk score of 8, the market has sufficient time for resolution clarity, but the lack of trading activity suggests minimal market interest in this specific outcome.
Resolution rules
If End of Beginning is the #2 most streamed Song on Spotify's 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTOPSONGSPOTIFYRUNNERUP-26-END yes 100