Will Manchild be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Manchild be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs Globally chart on the date that .... This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $401 in open interest, making the 5¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $401 in open interest, making the 5¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate. The asymmetric implied yields—2,687% for Yes versus 7.4% for No—reflect the massive mispricing inherent in such thin markets, where even a single small trade could dramatically shift the quoted price. With 258 days to expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 19, this appears to be a speculative position with minimal market depth rather than an efficiently-priced prediction.
Resolution rules
If Manchild is the #2 most streamed Song on Spotify's 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTOPSONGSPOTIFYRUNNERUP-26-MAN yes 100