Will SWIM be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?

Prediction markets currently give a 18% probability that Will SWIM be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs Globally chart on the date that the .... This contract trades at 18¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price potentially unreliable despite the massive 1272.4% implied yield on the Yes side.

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18¢mid
Bid/Ask 10/26¢·Spread 16¢·Vol $0·OI $0·Closes Dec 31, 2026·253d remaining
KXTOPSONGSPOTIFYRUNNERUP-26-SWIM

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price potentially unreliable despite the massive 1272.4% implied yield on the Yes side. The 16¢ spread is notably wide relative to the price, and the high Cliff Risk Index of 9 suggests significant uncertainty around resolution mechanics or event timing. With 258 days until expiry and no recent price movement, this appears to be a speculative long-shot bet on a relatively obscure song achieving a specific chart position, though the zero liquidity means any actual trading could dramatically shift valuations.

Resolution rules

If SWIM is the #2 most streamed Song on Spotify's 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1297.2%
IY (No) 16.0%
Adj IY 649%
CRI 9
Overround -0.3%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)1297.2%
IY (No)16.0%
Adj IY649%
CRI9
Overround-0.3%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
16¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 11:18:27 PM
Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 11:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXTOPSONGSPOTIFYRUNNERUP-26-SWIM yes 100

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