Will Manchild be the #3 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Manchild be the #3 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the c.... This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 2685.7% implied yield on the Yes side, reflecting virtually no trading activity ($0 in 24h volume) and minimal open interest of just $10.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 2685.7% implied yield on the Yes side, reflecting virtually no trading activity ($0 in 24h volume) and minimal open interest of just $10. The 5¢ price appears to dramatically undervalue what would be a remarkable achievement—requiring "Manchild" to become the #3 most-streamed song nationally in 2026, a feat that demands either massive artist recognition or a viral phenomenon, yet the market prices it at just 5% probability. With 258 days to expiry and a tight 5¢ spread, this illiquid contract may represent either a genuine mispricing opportunity or a song/artist with insufficient market awareness to attract serious traders.
Resolution rules
If Manchild is the #3 most streamed Song on Spotify's 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTOPSONGTHIRDUSA-26-MAN yes 100