Will Your Idol be the #3 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Your Idol be the #3 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the .... This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market displays extreme illiquidity with only $2 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 5¢ price potentially unreliable.
Analysis
This market displays extreme illiquidity with only $2 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 5¢ price potentially unreliable. The 2686% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic artifact of minimal liquidity rather than genuine edge, while the 19 Cliff Risk Index suggests significant resolution uncertainty around the exact chart release timing. With 258 days to expiry and a highly specific outcome requiring a song to rank exactly #3 among millions of potential candidates, the 5% probability appears reasonable for such a narrow target, though traders should demand substantial liquidity premiums before committing capital here.
Resolution rules
If Your Idol is the #3 most streamed Song on Spotify's 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTOPSONGTHIRDUSA-26-YOU yes 100