Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 34% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?
Prediction markets currently give a 35% probability that Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 34% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?. This contract trades at 35¢ on Kalshi, closing January 7, 2027. The Yes side offers an extreme 337% risk-adjusted implied yield, suggesting the market may be underpricing the probability of Trump's approval falling below 34% given his current polling typically ranges in the mid-to-high 40s.
Analysis
The Yes side offers an extreme 337% risk-adjusted implied yield, suggesting the market may be underpricing the probability of Trump's approval falling below 34% given his current polling typically ranges in the mid-to-high 40s. With only $36.03 in 24-hour volume against $9,735.71 open interest, liquidity is notably thin for a contract with 265 days to expiration, creating potential slippage risk for larger positions. The 714% realized volatility and 3.44 vol ratio indicate this market has experienced significant price swings, though the recent modest movement from 27¢ to 29¢ and tight 1¢ spread suggest current stability.
Resolution rules
If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is below 34%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTRUMPAPPROVALBELOW-26DEC31-34 yes 100