Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 36% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?
Prediction markets currently give a 58% probability that Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 36% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?. This contract trades at 58¢ on Kalshi, closing January 7, 2027. The market has experienced significant upward momentum, rallying 13 cents over seven days to 54¢, suggesting growing trader conviction that Trump's approval will dip below 36% during the resolution window.
Analysis
The market has experienced significant upward momentum, rallying 13 cents over seven days to 54¢, suggesting growing trader conviction that Trump's approval will dip below 36% during the resolution window. The asymmetric implied yields (155.1% for No vs. 121.9% for Yes) combined with elevated realized volatility of 219% and a vol ratio of 1.74 indicate substantial uncertainty and potential mispricing, though the tight 1¢ spread and modest $546.90 daily volume suggest limited liquidity to exploit any edge. With 265 days to expiry and a neutral regime, the market appears fairly balanced but reactive to incoming approval data, arriving at a measured 0.5 events per hour.
Resolution rules
If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is below 36%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Edges (1)
Trade
sf trade KXTRUMPAPPROVALBELOW-26DEC31-36 yes 100