Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 37% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?
Prediction markets currently give a 73% probability that Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 37% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?. This contract trades at 73¢ on Kalshi, closing January 7, 2027. The market is pricing in a 67% probability that Trump's approval rating stays below 37% through end-2026, but the extreme 279% implied yield on the No side suggests significant underpricing of the upside scenario—traders betting on higher approval ratings face dramatically better risk-adjusted returns.
Analysis
The market is pricing in a 67% probability that Trump's approval rating stays below 37% through end-2026, but the extreme 279% implied yield on the No side suggests significant underpricing of the upside scenario—traders betting on higher approval ratings face dramatically better risk-adjusted returns. The sharp 12-cent rally over seven days (56¢ to 68¢) combined with elevated 116% realized volatility and a 1.42 vol ratio indicates recent price momentum and market uncertainty, though thin 24-hour volume of $70.45 raises liquidity concerns for meaningful position sizing.
Resolution rules
If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is below 37%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTRUMPAPPROVALBELOW-26DEC31-37 yes 100