Will Tina Blum Cohen be the Republican nominee for TX-07?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will Tina Blum Cohen be the Republican nominee for TX-07?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This illiquid market shows extreme yield asymmetry, with the Yes side offering a striking 1552% annualized return versus just 2.7% for No, suggesting either severe underpricing of Cohen's nomination odds or minimal conviction from market participants.
Analysis
This illiquid market shows extreme yield asymmetry, with the Yes side offering a striking 1552% annualized return versus just 2.7% for No, suggesting either severe underpricing of Cohen's nomination odds or minimal conviction from market participants. The $0 24-hour volume and $298 open interest indicate virtually no trading activity, making the 11¢ price potentially unreliable as a probability estimate given the wide 7¢ spread. With 564 days until expiry and a moderate 24 Cliff Risk Index, this appears to be a speculative long-shot bet rather than an efficiently priced market.
Resolution rules
If Tina Blum Cohen wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 TX-07 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTXPRIMARY-07R26-TCOH yes 100