Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 15% and 20%?
Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 15% and 20%?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Kalshi, closing May 26, 2027. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1714% implied yield on Yes contracts against just 4.7% on No, suggesting the 7¢ price significantly undervalues the probability of a 15-20% victory margin or reflects genuine uncertainty about whether a runoff occurs at all.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1714% implied yield on Yes contracts against just 4.7% on No, suggesting the 7¢ price significantly undervalues the probability of a 15-20% victory margin or reflects genuine uncertainty about whether a runoff occurs at all. The modest $4,885 open interest and $467 daily volume indicate thin liquidity, making the price potentially unreliable, while the recent decline from 6¢ to 5¢ over seven days and moderate cliff risk (19) suggest some deterioration in runoff expectations. With 405 days to expiration, this market has ample time for political developments to shift odds, but the extreme yield differential warrants caution about taking either side at current prices without deeper Texas Republican primary analysis.
Resolution rules
If the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff falls between 15% and 20%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTXRSENRUNOFFMOV-26MAY26-KPAX-P17 yes 100