Will Donald Trump endorse Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate Runoff before May 26, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 36% probability that Will Donald Trump endorse Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate Runoff before May 26, 2026?. This contract trades at 36¢ on Kalshi, closing May 26, 2026. The market is pricing Trump's endorsement of Paxton at just 34%, but the extreme implied yield of 1,876% on the Yes side suggests severe illiquidity rather than genuine conviction—with only $216 in 24-hour volume and $10.5k open interest, the thin order book is likely inflating that figure.
Analysis
The market is pricing Trump's endorsement of Paxton at just 34%, but the extreme implied yield of 1,876% on the Yes side suggests severe illiquidity rather than genuine conviction—with only $216 in 24-hour volume and $10.5k open interest, the thin order book is likely inflating that figure. The price has drifted down 1¢ over seven days despite the market closing in just 40 days, indicating weak demand for the Yes position even as resolution approaches. Given Trump's historical tendency to endorse Texas Republicans and Paxton's establishment backing, the low probability may reflect liquidity constraints more than fundamental skepticism.
Resolution rules
If Donald Trump publicly endorses Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate Runoff before May 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTXRUNOFFENDORSE-26MAY26-DJT-KPAX yes 100