Who will hold the UFC Flyweight Title title on Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 25% probability that Who will hold the UFC Flyweight Title title on Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 25¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market on Joshua Van's UFC Flyweight Title retention shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a wide 9¢ spread, suggesting the 24¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus.
Analysis
This market on Joshua Van's UFC Flyweight Title retention shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a wide 9¢ spread, suggesting the 24¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus. The astronomical 944% implied yield on the Yes side combined with realized volatility exceeding 8,300% indicates severe pricing instability, likely driven by the thin $9,480 open interest and infrequent information arrivals (2.5/hour). The sharp 37.5% price decline over seven days (24¢ to 15¢) warrants caution, as this could reflect either genuine deterioration in Van's title prospects or simply illiquid repricing with minimal trading activity.
Also on polymarket at 32¢(Δ -7¢)
Resolution rules
If Joshua Van holds the UFC Flyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUFCFLYWEIGHTTITLE-26-JVAN yes 100