Who will hold the UFC Flyweight Title title on Dec 31, 2026
Leader sits at 54% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 39%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Joshua Van
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
39¢
Alexandre Pantoja
Spread
15pp
contested
24h volume
$679
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
145 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will hold the UFC Flyweight Title title on Dec 31, 2026
Analysis
The current 33% probability reflects the market's assessment that a specific fighter will hold the UFC Flyweight Championship on December 31, 2026. With approximately eight months until year-end, the outcome depends on the current champion's injury history, scheduled title defenses, and the strength of the challenger pool. The main driver of this probability is uncertainty around how many title fights will occur and whether the defending champion can successfully retain through the end of the year. The most significant catalyst will be any announced title fight schedule for the flyweight division in the coming months, which typically determines whether a bout occurs before year-end. Changes in fighter injury status or promotional priorities could shift this probability substantially.
- ›Number and timing of scheduled flyweight title defenses between now and December 31, 2026
- ›Current champion's injury history and availability relative to typical UFC scheduling patterns
- ›Strength and ranking progression of available challengers in the flyweight division
- ›Historical retention rates for the current titleholder in championship bouts
- ›UFC's promotional calendar and priority given to flyweight division matchups versus other weight classes
What moved the line
- Aug 4Alexandre Pantoja↓10pp52→42¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 8Alexandre Pantoja↓8pp48→40¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 6Joshua Van↑6pp39→45¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 7Joshua Van↑5pp45→50¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 3Alexandre Pantoja↑4pp48→52¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (54% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.