Who will be the Welterweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that Who will be the Welterweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 14¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market on Michael Morales holding the UFC Welterweight title by year-end 2026 shows extreme mispricing signals, with a 1874% implied yield on the Yes side despite only 14¢ pricing and negligible $0 in 24-hour volume against $3,853 open interest.
Analysis
This market on Michael Morales holding the UFC Welterweight title by year-end 2026 shows extreme mispricing signals, with a 1874% implied yield on the Yes side despite only 14¢ pricing and negligible $0 in 24-hour volume against $3,853 open interest. The 7¢ spread is notably wide relative to the price, and the realized volatility of 2879% combined with a 6.38 vol ratio suggests either sporadic large trades or data anomalies driving the outsized yield calculation. With 259 days to expiration and an information arrival rate of 3.4 events per hour, this illiquid market appears vulnerable to sudden repricing once meaningful volume materializes, making the current odds potentially unreliable for serious position-taking.
Also on polymarket at 8¢(Δ +6¢)
Resolution rules
If Michael Morales is the UFC Welterweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUFCWELTERWEIGHTTITLE-26-MMOR yes 100