Who will be the Welterweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026
Leader sits at 65% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 28%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Islam Makhachev
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
28¢
Ian Machado Garry
Spread
37pp
contested
24h volume
$360
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
188 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will be the Welterweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026
Who will be the Welterweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026?: Ian Machado Garry
KXUFCWELTERWEIGHTTITLE-26-IGAR
Who will be the Welterweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026?: Islam Makhachev
KXUFCWELTERWEIGHTTITLE-26-IMAK
Who will be the Welterweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026?: Carlos Prates
KXUFCWELTERWEIGHTTITLE-26-CPRA
Who will be the Welterweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026?: Kamaru Usman
KXUFCWELTERWEIGHTTITLE-26-KUSM
Analysis
This market reflects a 59% probability that Imanuel Alkhalifa will hold the UFC welterweight title on December 31, 2026. The current leader's elevated odds suggest confidence in either his path to the title or retention if he holds it presently, though the runner-up sits at only 8%, indicating no clear consensus on alternatives. The main drivers are Alkhalifa's competitive ranking, scheduled title fight timing, and potential injuries or upsets among other contenders. Title fights typically occur 2–3 months after announcement, making any official UFC matchmaking announcement critical to resolving this outcome. The Dec 31 deadline means only fights scheduled before late October 2026 would likely affect the final title holder.
- ›Alkhalifa's current official UFC ranking and proximity to a title shot as of mid-2026
- ›Announcement or scheduling of a specific welterweight title bout involving Alkhalifa or the current champion
- ›Historical UFC welterweight title fight frequency and average time-to-bout from announcement to execution
- ›Injury reports or withdrawal announcements by Alkhalifa or the sitting champion in the second half of 2026
- ›Relative betting volume and odds movement across the three contracts, indicating whether conviction is concentrated or dispersed
What moved the line
- Jun 20Ian Machado Garry↑8pp22→30¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Ian Machado Garry↑8pp24→32¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Ian Machado Garry↓6pp30→24¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Islam Makhachev↓6pp70→64¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Ian Machado Garry↓4pp33→29¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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