Who will be the Welterweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026
Leader sits at 91% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 7%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Islam Makhachev
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
7¢
Carlos Prates
Spread
84pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$253
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
102 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will be the Welterweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026
Who will be the Welterweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026?: Carlos Prates
KXUFCWELTERWEIGHTTITLE-26-CPRA
Who will be the Welterweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026?: Islam Makhachev
KXUFCWELTERWEIGHTTITLE-26-IMAK
Who will be the Welterweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026?: Kamaru Usman
KXUFCWELTERWEIGHTTITLE-26-KUSM
Analysis
This probability reflects the likelihood that Islam Makhachev will be the welterweight champion on December 31, 2026. At 87%, the market is pricing him as a strong favorite to hold the title through year-end, with Carlos Prates as the primary contender at 6% odds. The current assessment likely reflects Makhachev's recent performance record and standing within the division, while competitor odds reflect the possibility of unexpected upsets or title fights occurring before the deadline. The main driver of this probability would be scheduled championship bouts between now and year-end—if Makhachev faces a high-ranked challenger, the odds could shift significantly based on the matchup and perceived competitiveness. Title vacancies, injuries, or surprise contenders defeating ranked fighters would introduce the primary sources of volatility to this market.
- ›Makhachev's current championship status and recent fight record through September 2026
- ›Scheduled welterweight title defense or championship fights announced before December 31, 2026
- ›Injury status or availability of Makhachev and primary contenders like Prates in the final quarter of 2026
- ›Historical frequency of unexpected championship outcomes in the welterweight division
- ›UFC scheduling patterns and typical title defense frequency within a single calendar year
What moved the line
- Sep 17Islam Makhachev↑5pp86→91¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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