Will UK inflation rate YoY for March 2026 be above 3.1%?
Prediction markets currently give a 99% probability that Will UK inflation rate YoY for March 2026 be above 3.1%?. This contract trades at 99¢ on Kalshi, closing April 22, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the astronomical 1336.5% implied yield on the Yes side.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the astronomical 1336.5% implied yield on the Yes side. The 15¢ spread is unusually wide relative to the quoted price, and the sharp 4¢ decline over seven days suggests either thin positioning or technical movement rather than conviction-driven trading. With only 5 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 5, this contract is approaching resolution with insufficient liquidity to execute meaningful trades, indicating the market has effectively ceased functioning.
Resolution rules
If UK inflation rate YoY for March 2026 is above 3.1 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
▶ Full indicator table (6)▼ Full indicator table (6)
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Adj IY | >100,000% |
| CRI | 7 |
| RV | 1775% |
| VR | 1.01 |
| IAR | 0.8/h |
| Overround | 6.4% |
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUKCPIYOY-26APR22-T3.1 yes 100