Will UK inflation rate YoY for March 2026 be above 3.5%?
Prediction markets currently give a 41% probability that Will UK inflation rate YoY for March 2026 be above 3.5%?. This contract trades at 41¢ on Kalshi, closing April 22, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $32.58 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 25¢ price potentially unreliable despite the 11¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $32.58 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 25¢ price potentially unreliable despite the 11¢ spread. The astronomical implied yield of 22,130% on the Yes side signals severe mispricing or a liquidity trap rather than genuine market conviction, especially given the market closes in just 5 days when the March 2026 UK inflation data will be released. The sharp 38¢ to 24¢ price decline over 7 days suggests recent selling pressure, but with negligible trading activity, this movement may reflect only a handful of trades rather than meaningful consensus.
Resolution rules
If UK inflation rate YoY for March 2026 is above 3.5 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
▶ Full indicator table (6)▼ Full indicator table (6)
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Adj IY | 96000% |
| CRI | 2 |
| RV | 4108% |
| VR | 0.29 |
| IAR | 2.3/h |
| Overround | 6.4% |
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUKCPIYOY-26APR22-T3.5 yes 100