Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Rigetti?
Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Rigetti?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This illiquid market pricing government equity stakes in Rigetti Computing at just 8¢ shows extreme yield asymmetry, with Yes positions offering a speculative 1,871% annualized return against a modest 10.6% for No—suggesting either deep skepticism about federal investment or minimal trading activity to establish consensus.
Analysis
This illiquid market pricing government equity stakes in Rigetti Computing at just 8¢ shows extreme yield asymmetry, with Yes positions offering a speculative 1,871% annualized return against a modest 10.6% for No—suggesting either deep skepticism about federal investment or minimal trading activity to establish consensus. The $0 24-hour volume and $3,784 open interest indicate this is a niche bet with a 1¢ spread, while the recent price climb from 4¢ to 7¢ over seven days hints at emerging interest, though the 13 Cliff Risk Index flags potential volatility near the January 2027 expiration. With 259 days remaining, the market appears to be pricing a low but non-negligible tail risk of government intervention in the quantum computing firm, possibly tied to national security or industrial policy considerations.
Resolution rules
If any part of the United States federal government has taken a stake of Rigetti Computing before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-RGTI yes 100