Will the maximum USD/BRL exchange rate reach 5.7499 by Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will the maximum USD/BRL exchange rate reach 5.7499 by Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with a 90¢ spread and zero 24-hour volume despite $1,192 in open interest, making the 3¢ price potentially unreliable.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with a 90¢ spread and zero 24-hour volume despite $1,192 in open interest, making the 3¢ price potentially unreliable. The 4563.9% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic sign of mispricing in thin markets—such astronomical returns are rarely achievable and suggest the true probability of USD/BRL reaching 5.7499 is likely higher than 3%. With 259 days to expiry and a moderate cliff risk index of 32, traders should be cautious about the wide bid-ask gap before entering any position.
Resolution rules
If the USD/BRL rises above 5.7499 before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUSDBRLMAX-26DEC31-T5.7499 yes 100