Will the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for April 2026 be above 3.4%
Leader sits at 60% across 15 bound outcomes, runner-up at 30%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 5.7%
Outcomes
15
winner-take-all
Runner-up
30¢
Above 5.9%
Spread
30pp
contested
24h volume
$519
thin orderbook
Closes
Jul 15, 2026
20 days
Venue
Kalshi
15 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for June 2026 be above
Will the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for June 2026 be above 5.8%?: Above 5.8%
KXUSPPIYOY-26JUL15-T5.8
Will the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for June 2026 be above 7.0%?: Above 7.0%
KXUSPPIYOY-26JUL15-T7.0
Will the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for June 2026 be above 6.6%?: Above 6.6%
KXUSPPIYOY-26JUL15-T6.6
Will the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for June 2026 be above 6.8%?: Above 6.8%
KXUSPPIYOY-26JUL15-T6.8
Will the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for June 2026 be above 6.0%?: Above 6.0%
KXUSPPIYOY-26JUL15-T6.0
Will the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for June 2026 be above 6.4%?: Above 6.4%
KXUSPPIYOY-26JUL15-T6.4
Will the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for June 2026 be above 6.1%?: Above 6.1%
KXUSPPIYOY-26JUL15-T6.1
Will the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for June 2026 be above 5.9%?: Above 5.9%
KXUSPPIYOY-26JUL15-T5.9
Will the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for June 2026 be above 8.0%?: Above 8.0%
KXUSPPIYOY-26JUL15-T8.0
Will the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for June 2026 be above 7.6%?: Above 7.6%
KXUSPPIYOY-26JUL15-T7.6
Will the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for June 2026 be above 7.4%?: Above 7.4%
KXUSPPIYOY-26JUL15-T7.4
Will the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for June 2026 be above 7.2%?: Above 7.2%
KXUSPPIYOY-26JUL15-T7.2
Will the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for June 2026 be above 6.2%?: Above 6.2%
KXUSPPIYOY-26JUL15-T6.2
Will the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for June 2026 be above 5.7%?: Above 5.7%
KXUSPPIYOY-26JUL15-T5.7
Will the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for June 2026 be above 5.6%?: Above 5.6%
KXUSPPIYOY-26JUL15-T5.6
Analysis
This contracts tracks whether the U.S. Producer Price Index for final demand in April 2026 will exceed 3.4% year-over-year. An 88% probability indicates markets view inflation at this stage as likely to remain above this threshold. The current reading reflects broader expectations about commodity prices, labor costs, and supply-chain conditions through spring 2026. Key drivers include oil and energy prices, which heavily influence PPI, and whether wage pressures persist in transportation and manufacturing sectors. The April PPI data release, scheduled for early May, will definitively resolve this contract. Markets are currently pricing in a high likelihood that deflation pressures remain limited and input costs stay elevated relative to the 3.4% benchmark, though recent months' trends and Federal Reserve policy trajectory will influence final outcomes.
- ›April 2026 PPI release date and actual headline number relative to 3.4% year-over-year threshold
- ›Energy and crude oil price movements during the April measurement period
- ›Wage growth trends in goods-producing sectors affecting production costs
- ›Fed policy stance and interest rate expectations as of April, impacting cost-of-capital components
- ›Supply-chain disruption or normalization patterns reflected in transportation and material input costs
What moved the line
- Jun 24Above 5.6%↓55pp77→22¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Above 5.8%↓30pp55→25¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Above 6.2%↑12pp10→22¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Above 6.0%↓11pp26→15¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Above 5.9%↓11pp42→31¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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