Will United States retail sales MoM for March 2026 be above 0.6%?
Prediction markets currently give a 99% probability that Will United States retail sales MoM for March 2026 be above 0.6%?. This contract trades at 99¢ on Kalshi, closing April 21, 2026. This market is pricing in an extremely high probability (90%) that March 2026 US retail sales will exceed 0.6% MoM, yet the extraordinarily high implied yield on the No side (100,000%) and extreme realized volatility (327%) suggest severe illiquidity and potential mispricing rather than genuine conviction.
Analysis
This market is pricing in an extremely high probability (90%) that March 2026 US retail sales will exceed 0.6% MoM, yet the extraordinarily high implied yield on the No side (100,000%) and extreme realized volatility (327%) suggest severe illiquidity and potential mispricing rather than genuine conviction. With only $15 in 24-hour volume, $2,627 open interest, and just 2 days to expiry, the market appears thinly traded and vulnerable to sharp moves—indeed, the price has surged 60 cents over 7 days—making this less a reliable forecast and more a liquidity trap where the extreme yields reflect the difficulty of actually trading these positions.
Resolution rules
If United States retail sales MoM for March 2026 is above 0.6%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUSRETAIL-26APR21-T0.6 yes 100